Photo credit:Arne Hoel/World Bank
The global economy has entered a new era where commodity prices remain high despite slower economic growth. This trend is driven by four key factors: constrained global oil supply, resilient demand from China, climate change-driven metals demand and agricultural supply disruptions, and intensified geopolitical tensions.
Despite slower growth, average commodity prices in 2024-2025 are expected to remain 40% above 2015-2019 levels. Energy and food prices will moderate but remain 40% and 30% above their pre-pandemic averages, respectively. Base metals prices will rise slightly, averaging 40% higher than in 2015-2019.
This new normal presents opportunities for commodity-exporting countries to reshape their economies and ensure long-term prosperity. However, geopolitical risks and climate change-related disruptions pose significant challenges to global growth and stability. The world must adapt to this new reality and find ways to mitigate these risks to ensure a sustainable future.
Ruth Abla ADJORLOLO
