The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global economic growth will decelerate to 2.8 percent this year due to escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. According to IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, sustained trade tensions could significantly dampen global activity, with trade growth expected to plummet from 3.8 percent to 1.7 percent.
The risk of a global downturn has surged to 30 percent, nearly double the risk level since October, as financial markets prepare for potential turbulence. However, Gourinchas noted that global growth could rebound if countries ease trade tensions and commit to a stable trading environment.
To mitigate the economic slowdown, Gourinchas recommended agile monetary responses, prudent fiscal planning, and reforms to improve the global trade system. The IMF’s latest economic outlook highlights the urgent need for policymakers to address trade tensions and uncertainty to prevent a prolonged economic downturn.
Ruth Abla ADJORLOLO
